Index

Mind Blown · Base rates: Bayes

The 99 percent test

A test that is right 99 times in 100 says positive. What are the odds it is telling the truth?

A very accurate test runs over a whole crowd, and everyone it flags gets the same piece of paper. The middle panels sort that pile into the real cases and the false alarms, and one slider sets how common the thing was to begin with. Watch the odds a positive is real swing from almost nothing to almost certain.

Board: The 99 Percent Test That Is Usually Wrong →

Three panels and a slider. On a narrow screen the panels stack. Nothing animates or plays on its own.

try this Drag How rare it is to the right, then back to the left, and watch the percentage under If you test positive.

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see also Welcome to the Era of Experience and Centaurs and Cyborgs on the Jagged Frontier in Papers.