Mind Blown

False positive

test says + but you're fine. Rare disease + big crowd = these dominate.

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The 99 Percent Test That Is Usually WrongMind Blown

More terms from this board

Base ratehow common it is BEFORE the test (1 in 1000). Ignore it and you'll fool yourself.
Bayes' theoremthe math that folds the base rate back in: P(sick | +) = real / (real + false).