Returns Too Smooth to Be True - Ponzi schemes and the red flags

The Tank board draws savings as a reservoir fed by rivers that rise and fall. This lesson is about a reservoir whose level only ever rises, and why that, more than any other sign, means there is no river at all.

Before you start. You need two ideas from earlier in the track. Owning a Slice of the Ship - shares, bonds, and who gets paid first showed that owning shares means owning something whose value moves, sometimes down. Thirty-Four Years to Break Even - horizon, risk capacity, and the mix showed how far down: a whole market can lose most of its value and take decades to come back. Real investments fall. Hold on to that; this lesson is built on it.